The NBA Rookie of the Year award often garners significant attention, reflecting the hopes and aspirations placed on the league's newest talents. Over the past decade, a noticeable trend has emerged: productive rookie scorers frequently claim this prestigious honor. In fact, half of the last 10 winners were the top scoring rookies of their class. Additionally, half of the past 16 recipients were No. 1 overall picks, hinting at the importance of draft position in forecasting Rookie of the Year success.
However, exceptions do exist. Notably, Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon defied the odds, earning Rookie of the Year honors despite being drafted outside the top five picks. Their success stories serve as a reminder that talent can shine through regardless of draft position. Conversely, the track record shows only a handful of winners come from outside the elite top five, emphasizing the correlation between high draft picks and Rookie of the Year potential.
A Dearth of Big Men
Another interesting trend since 2003 is the scarcity of big men winning the award. Only four big men—Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and most recently, Victor Wembanyama—have managed to claim the Rookie of the Year title in the past two decades. This pattern underscores the league's evolving preference for versatile perimeter players who can score and facilitate play.
The 2024 Draft Class: An Uphill Battle
The 2024 draft class is widely regarded as one of the least promising in NBA history. The top two picks are seen as projects, neither of whom play the guard position, making this class a unique challenge for Rookie of the Year prognosticators. Among the guards, Reed Sheppard stands out as the highest-picked guard, but his journey is fraught with challenges, particularly Houston's competitive backcourt.
Despite the need for his shooting—"They badly need his shooting"—Reed Sheppard faces stiff internal competition that could stifle his rookie year productivity. Other rookies are grappling with their own set of hurdles as well. Stephon Castle, for instance, shot a paltry 26.7% on three-pointers at UConn, while Ron Holland struggled with a 23.9% three-point shooting percentage in the G-League. Alex Sarr had an even tougher time, shooting just 19.1% from the floor at Summer League—a statistic that dims his Rookie of the Year hopes. Adding to his woes, a source noted, "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up."
Challenging Pathways for New Entrants
Some rookies find their paths blocked by established players. Zach Edey is relatively certain to start for the Memphis Grizzlies, modeling his game on Jonas Valanciunas. Yet, the shadows of veterans loom large for other prospects. Rob Dillingham, drafted by the Timberwolves, is viewed as a future replacement for Mike Conley but will need to wait his turn. Portland’s Donovan Clingan contends with Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III ahead of him in the rotation.
The competition is equally stringent on other teams. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are vying with rookie Zaccharie Risacher for forward positions on Trae Young’s team, while Isaiah Collier finds himself blocked by both Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. Dalton Knecht’s opportunities with the Lakers are limited by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Dark Horses and Unexpected Venues
Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received commendable votes outside the lottery last season, though neither was a serious contender for the top rookie honor. As this year unfolds, it remains to be seen whether any dark horses will emerge from the ranks of overlooked draft picks, breaking through the expected narrative.
The landscape for the Rookie of the Year award is rich with stories of promise and potential pitfalls. As always, the unpredictable nature of the NBA ensures that while trends provide insight, the unfolding season could hold unexpected twists that defy conventional wisdom.