The Major League Baseball landscape was jolted with the news that All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes is once again on the move. Just ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays finalized a significant deal that sends Paredes back to his original team, the Cubs. This marks another sharp turn in the career of Paredes, who was initially signed by the Cubs as an amateur before making stops with the Detroit Tigers and subsequently the Tampa Bay Rays.
Details of the Trade
Paredes' journey has come full circle as he returns to the Chicago Cubs at the age of 25. With a slash line of .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) and 67 home runs over 354 games, Paredes ranks just behind elite third basemen like Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado in OPS+ during that span. Yet, his average exit velocity is in the 4th percentile, according to Statcast's metrics — a detail that offers a nuanced picture of his hitting profile.
Moreover, Robert Orr's database indicates that Paredes pulls a higher share of fly balls than anyone else in the majors. Statcast estimates suggest that if Paredes had played at Wrigley Field, he would have hit five fewer home runs this season and 12 fewer over his career. Despite these nuances, the Cubs see the untapped potential in Paredes, who brings power and versatility to their lineup.
This move provides the Cubs with team control over Paredes through the 2027 season. As the front office eyes a boost in batting capacity and overall team dynamics, Paredes is expected to play a crucial role. His return highlights the Cubs' commitment to strengthening their roster in their pursuit of postseason success.
Understanding the Rays' Position
From the Rays' perspective, this trade is part of a broader strategy as they have made multiple significant transactions since the start of July. Notable players like Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and now Isaac Paredes have been moved. Despite such extensive changes, the Rays remain only half a game worse in playoff positioning compared to the "White Flag Trade" executed by the 1997 Chicago White Sox.
One sports analyst succinctly characterized the Rays' approach: "Clearly the Powers That Be in St. Petersburg view Ron Schueler as a fearless trailblazer that never got his due."
New Faces in the Deal
The trade also includes Christopher Morel and two other players from the Cubs. At 25, Morel presents as a promising batter with a 90th percentile exit velocity, making him comparable to Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson. This potential has not gone unnoticed by experts who assert, "Morel strikes us as someone who is a decent bet to be an above-average hitter for at least the next few years."
The Rays might field Morel in various roles, including second base, left field, or designated hitter. As another expert noted, "The Rays may want to plop him down at second base (or left field, or DH) and say, 'that's that, go hit and we won't mind the defensive damage.'"
Additionally, Bigge, a 26-year-old with four major league appearances this season with the Cubs, and Johnson, a 22-year-old recent pick from Ball State in last summer’s 15th round, are part of the package heading to Tampa Bay.
All these moves indicate that while the Rays are shaking up their lineup, they are focused on a long-term strategy that could see Morel and other newcomers contributing significantly in the near future.
Future Implications for Both Teams
For the Cubs, the reacquisition of Paredes symbolizes a concerted effort to enhance their infield power and depth, backed by a player familiar with the organization. His presence is anticipated to invigorate the roster and provide a much-needed offensive punch.
On the other hand, the Rays continue to be a team in transition, aiming to maintain their competitive stance even amid a series of high-profile trades. Both organizations are playing the long game, and fans will be eagerly watching to see how these strategic moves unfold on the diamond.