The Minnesota Twins faced yet another crushing defeat at Progressive Field, as they squandered a three-run lead to fall 4-3 against the Cleveland Guardians. The loss raises serious questions about the Twins' ability to hold onto a postseason spot, with their lead in the third AL wild-card position now reduced to just 1.5 games.
The nail in the coffin came courtesy of Griffin Jax, who surrendered a game-deciding two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. This recent defeat marks the Twins' 18th loss in their last 27 games, reflecting a troubling trend as they approach the season's final stretch.
Plummeting Postseason Odds
Once pegged at a confident 95.4% by FanGraphs as of September 5, the Twins' postseason odds have dwindled to 76.4%. The slippage underscores not just the recent string of losses, but also the broader malaise affecting both their offense and pitching staff.
In their last 27 games, the Twins struggled significantly on offense, failing to score more than three runs in 12 of those contests. Collectively, the team is batting a modest .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. These offensive woes are perhaps most pronounced when the bases are empty, where the team hits just .272, one of the worst performances in this scenario across the league.
Manager Rocco Baldelli didn’t mince words about their predicament, saying, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Pitching Struggles
The bullpen, which once held a respectable 3.84 ERA and ranked tenth in the league in win probability added in their first 123 games, has seen its performance drastically deteriorate. Over the recent 27-game period, the Twins' bullpen posted a 5.47 ERA and a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," Griffin Jax lamented, reflecting the sentiment among the pitching crew.
The rotation hasn’t fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start over the same stretch. Indeed, the team's struggles have even led to some desperate measures, like claiming lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin holds a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season.
"We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," stated Derek Falvey.
Schedule and Playoff Race
The grueling schedule has also taken its toll, with the Twins playing 17 games in the last 18 days. This constant grind may partly explain their inability to close out games where they've held leads in the seventh inning or later, losing five such contests in their last 18 losses, while being tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions.
With the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners now looming just two games behind in the standings, the pressure mounts. The Twins, however, hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, an advantage that may prove pivotal in the coming weeks. The Tigers, who have gone 23-10 in their last 33 games, represent a substantial threat.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," said Pablo López, emphasizing the psychological battle the team faces.
Key Players and Looking Ahead
In some promising news, Max Kepler is expected to return, potentially providing a much-needed boost to both the lineup and team morale. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have been bright spots, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
Despite the adversity, the team remains hopeful, but urgency is now the name of the game. As manager Rocco Baldelli pointed out, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
For Twins fans, the anxieties of the recent weeks are palpable. But with their playoff hopes still alive, albeit tenuously, a few timely performances could reignite their season.