The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon at 2:20 PM ET in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Diamondbacks, slightly favored on the money line at -106, aim to build on their recent success and continue their road game momentum.
Pitching Matchup
Starting for the Cubs is left-hander Justin Steele, who will be making his 15th start of the season. Steele has been a dependable presence on the mound, boasting a 2-3 record paired with an impressive 2.71 ERA. Of his 14 starts, eight have been classified as quality starts, reflecting his consistency and ability to keep his team in the game. In his most recent outing, Steele delivered a dominant performance, pitching seven scoreless innings, and his home ERA stands at 3.16.
For the Diamondbacks, Ryne Nelson takes the mound with a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA. Despite the higher ERA, Nelson has shown resilience, not surrendering more than three earned runs in his last six straight starts. His WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296 suggest areas he needs to tighten up, but his recent form at least demonstrates a level of reliability.
Team Performance
The Diamondbacks currently hold a 49-48 overall record and sit second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. They have been particularly effective on the road recently, sporting a 4-1 record in their last five away games. Their run-scoring ability is also second to none in MLB, averaging five runs per game. The batting lineup has been formidable, with Christian Walker hitting 22 home runs and Ketel Marte contributing 19 homers.
On the other hand, the Cubs find themselves at 47-51, positioned fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. Despite their overall standing, the Cubs have shown flashes of brilliance, going 7-3 in their last ten games and 4-1 in their last five home games. Their recent 8-3 victory over the Cardinals featured a strong pitching performance from Jameson Taillon, who allowed three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings.
Offensive Stats
The Cubs’ offense averages 4.2 runs per game and maintains a team batting average of .235. Individual players have also stepped up, with Nico Hoerner hitting .378 over his last nine games and Christopher Morel smashing three homers in his last eight contests. These contributions have been vital as the Cubs look to climb up in the standings.
Betting Insights
The game’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, a number that both teams have frequently surpassed. Diamondbacks games average 9.8 runs this season, reflected in their 52-42 over/under record. When the over/under line stands at 7.5, Arizona holds a 6-4 record. Comparatively, the Cubs have a 67.3% rate of games surpassing the 7.5 line, and a 12-10 record under such conditions.
Both teams enter this game riding three-game over streaks, suggesting a high-scoring affair could be on the cards. Justin Steele is projected to secure six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is anticipated to record four strikeouts. Furthermore, projections favor Steele to concede fewer runs than Nelson, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the pitching duel.
Projections
The anticipation around this game is heightened not only by the stats but also by how closely matched these squads appear. Despite the Cubs' home field advantage and recent good form, the prediction tilts narrowly in favor of the Diamondbacks with a projected 5-4 victory. Such a narrow margin reflects the competitive spirit both teams bring to the diamond.